Minneapolis, Minnesota – A notable warming signal is emerging across Minnesota as February transitions into March, increasing the probability that prolonged Arctic air becomes less dominant statewide during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Minnesota carries a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. That warmer signal extends from the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota to Interstate 94 through the Twin Cities and north along U.S. 2 toward Duluth and the Arrowhead region.
This extended-range guidance favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While cold snaps remain possible in northern and western Minnesota, the broader atmospheric pattern suggests fewer sustained Arctic intrusions affecting major population centers including Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester and Duluth.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal across the state. No dominant wet or dry anomaly stands out in the long-range outlook, meaning typical late-winter systems remain possible without a strong signal for excessive snowfall or prolonged dry conditions.
Communities along I-35, I-94 and I-90 fall within this gradual transition toward early-spring conditions. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or day-to-day weather details.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance becomes available.
