Traverse City, Michigan – A broader warming trend is expected to expand across northern Michigan as February transitions into March, increasing the probability that winter’s most persistent Arctic air becomes less dominant across the region during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, northern Michigan carries a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. That warmer signal includes communities along Interstate 75 from Grayling to the Mackinac Bridge, as well as the US-131 corridor near Cadillac and US-31 along Lake Michigan.
This extended-range guidance favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While short cold snaps remain possible, the broader atmospheric pattern suggests fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions affecting major population centers including Traverse City, Petoskey, Alpena and Sault Ste. Marie.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal across northern Lower and eastern Upper Michigan. No dominant wet or dry anomaly stands out in the long-range outlook, meaning typical late-winter systems remain possible without a strong signal for excessive snowfall or extended dry stretches.
Communities near Lake Michigan, Lake Huron and the Straits region fall within this gradual transition toward early-spring conditions. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or day-to-day weather details.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance becomes available.
