Wilmington, North Carolina – A broad warming signal is taking shape across eastern North Carolina as February transitions into March, increasing the probability that winter’s most persistent cold becomes less frequent from the Coastal Plain to the Outer Banks during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, eastern North Carolina carries a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. That warmer signal stretches from the Interstate 95 corridor near Rocky Mount and Wilson eastward along U.S. 70, U.S. 17 and Interstate 40 toward Wilmington, New Bern and the Outer Banks.
This extended-range guidance favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While short cold snaps remain possible, the broader atmospheric pattern suggests fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions affecting major population centers including Greenville, Jacksonville and Elizabeth City.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal across eastern portions of the state. No dominant wet or dry anomaly stands out in the long-range outlook, meaning typical late-winter systems remain possible without a strong signal for excessive rainfall or extended dry stretches.
Communities along the coast and inland corridors fall within this gradual transition toward early-spring conditions. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects large-scale atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or day-to-day weather details.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance becomes available.
