Newark, New Jersey – A broader warming pattern is expected to take shape across New Jersey as February transitions into March, increasing the probability that winter’s sharpest cold becomes less persistent during the Feb. 28 through Mar. 13 timeframe.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, New Jersey carries a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal temperatures in the Week 3-4 outlook. That warmer signal stretches statewide, from the Interstate 80 corridor in North Jersey to communities along Interstate 95, the Garden State Parkway and coastal areas near Atlantic City and Cape May.
This extended-range guidance favors more seasonable to slightly milder conditions compared to late-February averages. While brief cold snaps remain possible, the large-scale atmospheric pattern suggests fewer prolonged Arctic intrusions affecting major population centers including Newark, Jersey City, Trenton and Camden.
Precipitation probabilities during the same period lean near normal across the state. No dominant wet or dry anomaly stands out in the long-range outlook, meaning typical late-winter systems remain possible without a strong signal for excessive snowfall or extended dry stretches.
Communities across North, Central and South Jersey fall within this gradual transition toward early-spring conditions. The Week 3-4 outlook reflects broad atmospheric trends rather than specific storm timing or day-to-day weather details.
Additional refinements are expected as the late-February to mid-March window approaches and shorter-range guidance becomes available.
