Kansas City, Missouri – A pronounced late-winter warmup is lining up across Missouri and Iowa in the Feb. 21–27 window, bringing a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures and increasing rain chances across both states.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Missouri and Iowa fall within a 50% to 60% probability zone for above-normal temperatures during the 8- to 14-day outlook. That signals afternoon highs running several degrees above late-February averages from St. Louis and Columbia north through Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.
Rain probabilities are also elevated, with a 50% to 60% chance of above-normal precipitation. That setup favors multiple systems tracking through the central Plains and Midwest, producing rounds of showers. In southern Missouri, including Springfield and Cape Girardeau, steadier rainfall may develop at times if storm tracks shift south. Across central and northern Iowa, periods of rain could mix briefly with sleet overnight if surface temperatures dip near freezing.
Drivers should prepare for wet stretches along I-70, I-35 and I-80, especially during heavier downpours when visibility can drop and water may pond on highways.
The broader pattern supports active, milder conditions rather than a return to prolonged winter cold. Additional updates from the National Weather Service may refine timing and rainfall totals as late February approaches.
