Oklahoma City, Oklahoma – A significant mid-February warm-up is expected across Oklahoma, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence shift away from typical winter conditions.
Under normal circumstances, mid-February highs across Oklahoma generally range from the upper 40s to mid-50s. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 50s, 60s, and lower 70s, particularly across central, southern, and eastern portions of the state. Northern Oklahoma is also expected to see a notable departure from seasonal averages.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are forecast to surge into the 50s and 60s, reinforcing what forecasters often describe as a late-winter “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential across Oklahoma during this timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures, this may lead to localized flooding concerns, especially in low-lying areas, along rivers and streams, and in locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects large-scale climate probabilities, not a day-to-day forecast. Colder air and unsettled weather can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide brief relief from winter chill, though rapidly changing Plains weather remains possible.
