St. Louis, Missouri – A significant mid-February warm-up is expected across Missouri, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including St. Louis and Kansas City. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence shift away from typical winter weather.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across Missouri typically range from the upper 30s to mid-40s. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 40s, 50s, and lower 60s, particularly across central and southern Missouri. Northern portions of the state are also expected to see a noticeable rise compared to seasonal averages.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are expected to surge into the 50s and 60s, reinforcing what forecasters often describe as a late-winter “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential across Missouri during this timeframe. Combined with rising temperatures, melting snowpack in northern Missouri and periodic rain could lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, especially in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects probabilistic climate guidance, not a day-to-day forecast. Colder air and wintry weather can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide brief relief from winter cold, though rapidly changing weather conditions remain possible.
