Minneapolis, Minnesota – A notable mid-February warm-up is expected across Minnesota, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Minneapolis and St. Paul. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence shift away from typical mid-winter cold.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across Minnesota typically range from the teens to mid-20s, with colder readings across northern sections. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 20s, 30s, and even lower 40s across southern and central Minnesota, marking a significant departure from seasonal norms.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are expected to surge into the 50s and 60s, reinforcing what forecasters often describe as a late-winter “spring tease.” While Minnesota will remain cooler than areas farther south, the relative warmth will still be noticeable.
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal precipitation across the Upper Midwest during this timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures, melting snowpack could lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, particularly in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects probabilistic climate guidance, not a day-to-day forecast. Arctic air can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the milder stretch may offer brief relief from extreme cold, though rapidly changing winter conditions remain possible.
