Chicago, Illinois – A significant mid-February warm-up is expected across Illinois, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Chicago and Springfield. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence departure from typical winter weather.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across Illinois generally range from the upper 20s to mid-30s, with colder readings in northern sections. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 40s and 50s, with parts of central and southern Illinois potentially reaching the lower 60s during peak warmth.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. Across the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, temperatures are expected to surge into the 50s and 60s, reinforcing what forecasters often describe as a late-winter “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal precipitation across Illinois during this timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures, melting snowpack—especially in northern Illinois—could lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, particularly in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects probabilistic climate guidance, not a day-to-day forecast. Colder air and wintry conditions can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the milder stretch may provide brief relief from winter cold, though rapidly changing conditions remain possible.
