Nashville, Tennessee – A pronounced mid-February warm-up is expected across Tennessee, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including Nashville and Memphis. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence departure from typical late-winter weather.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across Tennessee generally range from the mid-40s to lower 50s, depending on elevation and location. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 50s, 60s, and lower 70s, particularly across western and central Tennessee.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. While northern states experience a temporary winter thaw, the Tennessee Valley is expected to see a more noticeable spring tease, with temperatures briefly resembling early March or April conditions.
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential during this timeframe. Combined with rising temperatures, this could increase the risk for localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas, along rivers and creeks, and in urban locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects large-scale climate probabilities, not a day-to-day forecast. Cooler air can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide short-term relief from winter chill, though rapidly changing weather conditions remain possible.
