Jacksonville, Florida – A strong mid-February warm-up is expected across North Florida, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook shows a high probability of above-normal temperatures across the region, including Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Probabilities exceed 60 percent, signaling a confident shift toward unseasonably warm conditions.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across North Florida typically range from the mid-60s to lower 70s. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, particularly across inland areas during peak afternoon heating.
This warm-up is part of a broader weather pattern affecting much of the central and eastern United States. While areas farther north experience a temporary winter thaw, the Southeast—including Florida—will feel a more pronounced early taste of spring, often referred to by forecasters as a “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal rainfall potential during this timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures, this may increase the risk for localized flooding, especially in urban areas, low-lying locations, and regions with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects large-scale climate probabilities, not a day-to-day forecast. Cooler conditions can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for short-term updates.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may bring summerlike afternoons earlier than usual, though changing conditions remain possible.
