New York, New York – A mid-February warm-up is expected across New York, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures statewide, including New York City and Albany. Probabilities for warmer-than-average conditions exceed 60 percent, indicating a high-confidence departure from typical winter weather.
Under normal conditions, mid-February highs across New York generally range from the upper 20s to mid-30s, with colder readings across northern and higher-elevation areas. During this warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 30s and 40s, with parts of downstate New York and the Hudson Valley potentially reaching the lower 50s under favorable conditions.
This warming trend is part of a broader weather pattern influencing much of the central and eastern United States. While areas farther west—including parts of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley—may see temperatures surge into the 50s and 60s, the Northeast is still expected to experience a noticeable but temporary break from winter cold, often described as a “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks indicate near to slightly above-normal precipitation across the region during this timeframe. Combined with warmer temperatures, melting snowpack may lead to localized ponding, river rises, and minor flooding, particularly in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage.
Forecasters emphasize that this outlook reflects probabilistic climate guidance, not a day-to-day forecast. Winter weather remains possible later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts as conditions evolve.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the milder stretch may provide brief relief from winter cold, though rapidly changing conditions remain possible.
