Burlington, Vermont – A notable mid-February warm-up is expected across Vermont, with temperatures forecast to run 10 to 20 degrees above normal from Feb. 16–20, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The agency’s 6–10 day outlook indicates a high probability of above-normal temperatures statewide, including Burlington and Montpelier. Confidence levels exceed 60 percent, signaling a strong departure from typical winter conditions during this period.
Under normal circumstances, mid-February highs in Vermont average in the upper 20s to lower 30s. During the upcoming warm stretch, daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 30s and 40s, particularly in the Champlain Valley and lower elevations. Overnight lows may also trend milder, reducing the frequency of subzero conditions.
The warming pattern is part of a broader setup affecting much of the central and eastern United States. While states farther west—including parts of the Midwest and Mississippi Valley—may experience highs in the 50s and 60s, northern New England is still expected to see a pronounced, if temporary, break from winter cold often referred to as a “spring tease.”
Precipitation outlooks suggest near to slightly above-normal precipitation across the region. Combined with warmer temperatures, this may accelerate snowmelt, increasing the risk for localized runoff, ponding of water, and minor flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas.
Forecasters stress that this outlook reflects large-scale climate probabilities, not a day-by-day forecast. Winter weather can still return later in February, and residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts for updated details.
For commuters, students, and outdoor workers, the warmer stretch may provide short-term relief from harsh winter conditions, though rapidly changing weather remains possible.
