Phoenix, Arizona – A warmer-than-normal and wetter weather pattern is expected to take shape across Arizona heading into Valentine’s Day weekend, increasing the likelihood of rain in the deserts, snow in higher elevations, and changing travel conditions from Saturday through midweek. While no single high-impact storm is locked in, repeated systems could create cumulative impacts across the state.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, Arizona is favored for above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures during the February 14–18 period. This pattern supports mild daytime conditions while allowing Pacific moisture to push inland across the Southwest.
In the lower deserts, including Phoenix, Mesa, and Chandler, periods of rain are expected, especially during overnight and early morning hours. While flooding is not currently indicated, brief heavier showers could cause ponding on roadways along I-10, Loop 101, and local surface streets, slowing travel during commute windows.
Southern Arizona, including Tucson, Nogales, and Sierra Vista, may also see repeated rain chances. Desert soils can struggle to absorb steady rainfall, increasing the risk for slick roads and reduced visibility, particularly along I-19 and I-10.
Higher elevations across northern and eastern Arizona, including Flagstaff, Payson, and Show Low, are more likely to see snow. Warmer air aloft may produce heavier, moisture-laden snowfall, impacting travel along I-40, I-17 north of Black Canyon City, and State Route 87. Snow-covered roads and reduced visibility are possible during colder overnight periods.
Western Arizona, including Kingman and Lake Havasu City, may see rain mixed with higher-elevation snow nearby, creating variable travel conditions on U.S. 93. Additional precipitation falling on existing snowpack in the high country could increase runoff into washes and rivers later in the period.
Sky Harbor International Airport and Tucson International Airport may experience occasional delays due to low clouds or steady rain, though widespread disruptions are not expected. ADOT crews are expected to monitor mountain routes closely as conditions evolve.
This warmer, wetter pattern is expected to persist into midweek. Additional advisories may be issued as individual systems become clearer, and residents are urged to stay alert for updates, especially when traveling through higher terrain or during overnight hours.
