Billings, MT – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Montana during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the northern Rockies and High Plains, including all of Montana. This pattern follows recent episodes of winter cold and signals a temporary break from prolonged mid-winter conditions.
In south-central Montana, including Billings and communities along the I-90 corridor, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the upper 20s to low 30s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the 30s and low 40s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the frequency of extreme subzero temperatures.
Across western Montana, including Missoula, Kalispell, and the Flathead Valley, temperatures are forecast to trend above seasonal averages, though cooler nights may persist in valleys. Central Montana, including Great Falls and Lewistown, is also expected to see milder afternoons, while eastern Montana may warm efficiently under drier conditions.
As temperatures rise, existing snowpack across mountain ranges such as the Beartooths, Absarokas, Bitterroots, and Rockies may begin to thaw at lower elevations. Snowmelt combined with rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-90, I-15, I-94, U.S. Highway 2, and U.S. Highway 87 are particularly sensitive to ponding and localized flooding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. While no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with melting snow could contribute to rises on rivers including the Yellowstone, Missouri, Clark Fork, Milk, and Musselshell.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on rivers and lakes statewide, creating hazardous conditions for recreation. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist overnight and in shaded or higher-elevation areas.
Residents across Montana are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
