St. Louis, MO – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Missouri during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the central United States, including all of Missouri. This transition follows recent winter cold and signals a temporary break from mid-winter conditions.
In eastern Missouri, including St. Louis and communities along the Mississippi River, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-40s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently reach the upper 40s to low 50s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the frequency of hard freezes.
Across western Missouri, including Kansas City, Independence, and St. Joseph, temperatures are forecast to trend several degrees above normal, leading to more consistent afternoon warming. Central Missouri, including Columbia and Jefferson City, is also expected to see milder conditions, while southern Missouri and the Ozarks may warm efficiently during daylight hours.
As temperatures rise, any lingering snowpack across northern Missouri and higher elevations may begin to melt. Snowmelt combined with rainfall could increase runoff into rivers, streams, and storm drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-70, I-44, I-55, I-35, and US-63 are particularly sensitive to ponding and localized flooding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential during this timeframe. While no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with melting snow could contribute to rises on rivers including the Missouri, Mississippi, Meramec, Gasconade, and Osage.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on ponds and smaller waterways, creating hazards for recreation. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen bodies of water as ice conditions deteriorate.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist overnight and in shaded areas.
Residents across Missouri are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
