Albuquerque, NM – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact New Mexico during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Southwest, including all of New Mexico. This transition follows recent winter cold and signals a temporary break from mid-winter conditions, especially across lower elevations.
In central New Mexico, including Albuquerque and communities along the I-25 corridor, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the upper 40s to low 50s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may frequently climb into the 50s and low 60s during this period. Overnight lows are also expected to moderate, reducing the frequency of hard freezes.
Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe, Los Alamos, and the Sangre de Cristo foothills, is forecast to trend above seasonal averages, though cooler nights will persist at higher elevations. Across southern New Mexico, including Las Cruces, Deming, and the I-10 corridor, temperatures may reach the 60s and low 70s during the afternoons.
As temperatures rise, existing snowpack in the northern mountains and high terrain may begin to melt at lower elevations. Snowmelt combined with any rainfall could increase runoff into arroyos, creeks, and rivers. Transportation corridors such as I-25, I-40, I-10, U.S. Highway 285, and U.S. Highway 550 are particularly sensitive to ponding, mud, and debris flows during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential across parts of the Southwest. While no specific storm systems are identified, occasional rain or mountain snow combined with warming temperatures could contribute to rises on rivers including the Rio Grande, Pecos, San Juan, and Canadian.
Warming conditions may also increase snowmelt-driven flows and lead to gusty winds and elevated fire-weather concerns in drier areas later in the period.
Commuters, students, outdoor workers, and rural residents may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter conditions can persist overnight in mountain zones.
Residents across New Mexico are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and fire-weather outlooks as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
