Baltimore, MD – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Maryland during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide effects.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic, including all of Maryland. This transition follows recent winter cold and suggests a temporary break from prolonged freezing conditions.
In Baltimore and central Maryland, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the low to mid-40s. Forecast guidance indicates highs may frequently reach the upper 40s to low 50s during this period. Similar warming is expected across southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore, while western Maryland, including Garrett and Allegany counties, will also trend milder than normal despite remaining cooler overall.
While the warmer pattern may improve daily comfort and travel conditions, it also raises hydrologic concerns. Snowpack in western Maryland and higher elevations of the Appalachians may begin to melt, increasing runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-95, I-70, I-83, I-68, and U.S. Route 50 are particularly vulnerable to ponding and localized flooding during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook shows near to above-normal precipitation potential across parts of the eastern United States. Although no specific storm systems are identified, rainfall combined with snowmelt could elevate the risk of river rises and ice movement on waterways including the Potomac, Patapsco, Susquehanna, and Monocacy rivers.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on ponds, lakes, and rivers statewide, creating hazardous conditions for recreation. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist during transitional weather patterns, especially overnight.
Residents across Maryland are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
