Hartford, CT – A spring-like shift in the weather pattern is expected to impact Connecticut and Rhode Island during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across southern New England. This includes all of Connecticut and Rhode Island, following a stretch of colder mid-winter conditions earlier in February.
In Hartford, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Forecast guidance suggests highs may trend into the 40s and possibly low 50s during this period. Similar conditions are expected in Providence and along the Rhode Island coast, where moderating overnight lows may further reduce the frequency of hard freezes.
While the warmer pattern may improve overall travel and outdoor conditions, it also raises hydrologic concerns. Snowpack remaining across interior Connecticut and higher terrain could begin to melt, increasing runoff into rivers, streams, and storm drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-84, I-91, I-95, Route 2, and Route 6 are particularly vulnerable to ponding and drainage issues during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook shows near to above-normal precipitation potential across parts of the Northeast. Although the outlook does not specify individual storm systems, rainfall combined with snowmelt could elevate the risk of localized flooding and ice movement on rivers including the Connecticut, Thames, and Pawcatuck.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on ponds, lakes, and smaller waterways across both states. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen bodies of water as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials caution that winter hazards can persist during transitional weather patterns, especially during overnight hours.
Residents across Connecticut and Rhode Island are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts, river statements, and local advisories as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
