Burlington, VT – A developing spring-like weather pattern is expected to impact Vermont and New Hampshire during the February 11–17 period, bringing above-normal temperatures with potential statewide implications.
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 8–14 day outlook strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across northern New England, including all of Vermont and New Hampshire. This shift follows recent periods of intense winter cold and signals a temporary break from mid-winter conditions.
In Burlington and the Champlain Valley, average mid-February high temperatures typically range from the upper 20s to low 30s. Forecast guidance suggests daytime highs may climb into the upper 30s and 40s at times during this period. Similar trends are expected across New Hampshire, including Manchester, Concord, and the Upper Valley, with milder daytime temperatures and less frequent overnight deep freezes.
While the warmer pattern may improve daily comfort and travel conditions, it also raises concerns related to snowmelt and hydrology. Snowpack across the Green Mountains, White Mountains, and North Country may begin to thaw, increasing runoff into rivers, streams, and drainage systems. Transportation corridors such as I-89, I-91, I-93, and U.S. Route 2 are particularly sensitive to ponding and drainage issues during rapid warmups.
The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook indicates near to above-normal precipitation potential across parts of the region. Although no specific storm system is highlighted, rainfall combined with snowmelt could increase the risk of localized flooding and ice movement on rivers.
Warming temperatures may also weaken ice on ponds, lakes, and rivers, creating hazardous conditions for recreation. The National Weather Service advises residents to avoid frozen waterways as ice conditions deteriorate during thaw periods.
Commuters, students, and outdoor workers may notice more spring-like afternoons, but officials emphasize that winter hazards can persist during transitional weather patterns.
Residents across Vermont and New Hampshire are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts and river statements as confidence increases closer to the February 11–17 timeframe.
