Kansas City, Missouri – Winter may not be ready to step aside across the Heartland, as Groundhog Day tradition and long-range climate signals both point to a slower transition toward spring. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow Monday morning, a familiar signal that suggests six more weeks of winter and pushes expectations for a dependable warm-up closer to mid-March.
According to the National Weather Service, much of the Heartland region falls into an “equal chances” category for temperatures from February through April. That outlook keeps the potential for late-season cold snaps, snow events, and sharp temperature swings firmly in play. Nebraska and Iowa remain especially vulnerable to lingering winter systems into March, while Missouri, eastern Kansas, and Illinois could see frequent back-and-forth shifts between chilly rain, brief snow, and short-lived warmups.
Precipitation is expected to be a key driver of impacts. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, large portions of the Heartland are favored for above-normal precipitation through early spring. That raises the likelihood of heavier snowfall during colder periods and rain during milder stretches, increasing concerns for slick travel along corridors such as I-70, I-80, I-35, and I-29. River rises are also possible along the Missouri, Mississippi, and Platte rivers as snowmelt combines with repeated rain events.
The Farmers’ Almanac notes that spring officially begins Friday, March 20, and highlights a total lunar eclipse beginning early Tuesday, March 3, visible across much of the central U.S. Even with those seasonal milestones approaching, winter weather impacts may persist beyond them. Residents across the Heartland are encouraged to stay weather-aware, prepare for changing road conditions, and monitor updated advisories, as winter hazards could remain part of daily life well into early spring.
