Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas – A developing warm signal is beginning to take shape across Texas as February gets underway, with milder air expected to spread south and east from the Panhandle into central portions of the state during the first full week of the month.
According to the National Weather Service and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 30 to 60 percent probability that temperatures from Tuesday through the following Monday will trend above normal across much of Texas. The strongest signal is focused across the Panhandle and North Texas, gradually extending into central Texas, including the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex, Waco, and Austin.
In these areas, daytime highs may climb into the 50s and low 60s at times, especially during drier periods. Overnight lows will still dip into the 30s and 40s, keeping winter firmly in play despite warmer afternoons. Confidence in sustained warmth remains lower than across the western U.S., leaving room for brief cool-downs if fronts slip south.
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are expected to remain mild regardless, while West Texas sits near the transition zone between warmer western air and more variable Plains weather. The weaker signal increases uncertainty compared to states farther west.
Precipitation chances appear limited overall, which should help keep travel conditions steady along major corridors such as I-35, I-40, and I-45. Residents may notice a gradual easing of winter chill during the afternoons, but sharp temperature swings remain possible. With confidence moderate and not locked in, additional outlook updates are likely as February progresses.
