Austin, Texas – New long-range federal climate guidance suggests February 2026 may bring near-normal winter precipitation across Texas, with equal chances of rain and snow rather than a dominant winter weather signal.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Texas is currently placed in an “equal chances” category for February precipitation type. This designation indicates no statistically significant signal favoring either above-normal snowfall or rain-dominant systems compared to long-term February averages.
Equal chances outlooks reflect uncertainty in storm tracks and the strength of cold-air intrusions. For Texas, this suggests February 2026 could feature a wide range of outcomes, including rain, brief snow events, sleet, or freezing rain, depending on storm timing and how far south Arctic air is able to penetrate.
Northern and western Texas are more likely to see wintry precipitation during stronger cold outbreaks, while central Texas may experience a mix of rain and brief wintry episodes. Southern and coastal areas are more likely to see rain, though rare cold intrusions could still briefly change precipitation type.
CPC outlooks do not provide storm-specific forecasts or snowfall totals. Instead, they indicate how February conditions may compare to long-term averages. An equal chances designation means outcomes could vary significantly from one system to the next.
Temperature outlooks for February indicate near-normal conditions across much of Texas. This temperature profile supports alternating mild and colder periods, increasing the likelihood of mixed precipitation rather than prolonged winter weather.
Surrounding regions including Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and New Mexico also show neutral precipitation signals, reinforcing uncertainty in how consistently winter patterns will favor snow versus rain across the southern Plains and Gulf-adjacent states.
Residents, commuters, energy-sector workers, and freight operators across Texas are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as February approaches, when shorter-range outlooks will better clarify cold-air timing, precipitation type, and potential travel or infrastructure impacts.
