Weather
Wisconsin Winter Weather Projections: 2026-27 Outlook Favors Warmth
La Crosse, WI – Winter across western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa could look different this season, with federal forecasters favoring warmer than average temperatures from
By Natalie Rhodes · 2026-10-15T19:36:17.386Z
La Crosse, WI – Winter across western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa could look different this season, with federal forecasters favoring warmer than average temperatures from December 2026 through February 2027. However, snowfall and precipitation remain major uncertainties.
According to the National Weather Service in La Crosse and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the winter outlook released Thursday, Oct. 15, indicates a 50% to 60% probability of above normal temperatures across much of the Driftless Region.
Warmer Winter Conditions Favored
La Crosse has a 54% probability of above normal temperatures, compared with a 33% chance of near normal conditions and a 13% chance of below normal temperatures.
Rochester, Minnesota, faces similar odds, with a 53% probability of above normal temperatures, 33% near normal and 14% below normal.
For perspective, La Crosse's normal December through February average temperature is 22.5 degrees, while Rochester's is 18.1 degrees.
These probabilities do not mean every winter day will be warm. Significant cold outbreaks and winter storms remain possible.
What About Snowfall?
Precipitation is considerably harder to predict.
Forecasters indicate nearly equal chances of above normal, near normal and below normal precipitation across La Crosse and Rochester.
La Crosse normally receives 3.93 inches of winter precipitation, while Rochester averages 3.29 inches. These totals include the liquid equivalent of snow and other precipitation.
The National Weather Service also noted that strong El Niño events historically tend to favor wetter conditions, particularly during December and February. However, wetter conditions do not automatically translate into more snowfall.
What Residents Should Know
Drivers and residents across western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa should continue preparing for snow, ice and freezing temperatures despite the warmer seasonal outlook.
The Climate Prediction Center's next winter outlook is scheduled for Thursday, Nov. 19, at 7:30 a.m. CDT.