Weather
Vermont Winter Outlook 2026-27: Burlington Snow Still Possible
Burlington, VT – Vermont residents preparing for the 2026 27 winter season could experience warmer than normal temperatures and increased precipitation, according to newly released federal seasonal ou
By Cole Barrett · 2026-10-16T16:46:31.105Z
Burlington, VT – Vermont residents preparing for the 2026 27 winter season could experience warmer than normal temperatures and increased precipitation, according to newly released federal seasonal outlooks. However, snowstorms, freezing temperatures and hazardous travel conditions remain possible across Burlington, Montpelier, Rutland and surrounding communities.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal temperatures and precipitation across Vermont from November 2026 through January 2027.
What does NOAA predict for Vermont this winter?
The temperature outlook places Vermont within an area showing approximately a 40% to 50% probability of above normal temperatures.
This suggests the three month period is more likely to average warmer than usual, although individual cold outbreaks and stretches of below freezing weather remain possible.
The precipitation outlook also favors above normal conditions, with probabilities generally ranging from 33% to 40%.
These projections include rain, snow and other forms of precipitation, meaning wetter conditions do not automatically translate into higher snowfall totals.
Will Burlington and Vermont see significant snowfall?
Snowfall remains an important concern across Chittenden County and the greater Burlington metropolitan area, particularly during winter storms affecting Interstate 89 and Interstate 91.
Mountain communities near Stowe, Killington and the Green Mountains could still experience significant snowfall despite the warmer seasonal outlook.
National Weather Service briefing materials indicate very strong El Niño conditions are highly likely to continue into winter.
El Niño can influence storm tracks and temperature patterns across the United States, although individual winters can produce substantially different outcomes.
Forecasters emphasize that seasonal outlooks represent probabilities rather than guarantees.
For Vermont, the overall outlook favors a warmer and potentially wetter winter, but accumulating snow, freezing rain and dangerous driving conditions remain possible.
Residents should continue monitoring National Weather Service updates as winter approaches.