Weather
Burlington, Vermont Weather: November Outlook, Fall Changes Oct. 26–Nov. 1
BURLINGTON, VT — Vermont is approaching November with a sharp contrast between comfortable afternoon temperatures and increasingly chilly nights. Burlington could see temperatures fall into the lower
By Natalie Brooks · 2026-10-19T09:18:44.837Z
BURLINGTON, VT — Vermont is approaching November with a sharp contrast between comfortable afternoon temperatures and increasingly chilly nights. Burlington could see temperatures fall into the lower and middle 30s several times this week, raising questions about whether colder autumn conditions will continue as NOAA's Oct. 26–Nov. 1 outlook period approaches.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day outlook issued Oct. 18 covers average temperatures and total precipitation from Oct. 26 through Nov. 1, 2026. The outlook identifies broad temperature and precipitation tendencies rather than predicting individual daily highs, lows or snowfall totals. Vermont's specific extended period categories still require confirmation from the corresponding NOAA maps.
Burlington Faces a Noticeable Temperature Drop The National Weather Service forecast for Burlington shows Monday, Oct. 19, reaching approximately 62 degrees under sunny skies, with south winds of 6 to 11 mph.
That relatively mild afternoon will be followed by a cooler pattern.
Tuesday's high is expected to reach only 56 degrees, with skies becoming sunny after some early clouds. North winds of 8 to 13 mph are forecast.
By Tuesday night, temperatures could fall to approximately 34 degrees.
Wednesday brings another sunny afternoon with a high near 55 degrees, followed by a second night around 34 degrees.
Thursday should reach 57 degrees, while overnight temperatures are forecast near 36 degrees.
Friday's high is expected to reach approximately 53 degrees, with temperatures falling to around 33 degrees Friday night.
The weekend should remain generally sunny, with highs near 55 degrees Saturday and 58 degrees Sunday.
At Burlington International Airport, the temperature was 40 degrees at 3:54 a.m. EDT Monday, with fair skies and an east wind near 5 mph.
Cold Nights Matter Across Northern Vermont The forecast highlights an important feature of Vermont's autumn transition: daytime sunshine does not necessarily prevent temperatures from approaching freezing overnight.
For residents of Burlington and surrounding Chittenden County, the repeated lows in the 30s could be especially relevant for gardeners and people maintaining temperature sensitive outdoor plants.
Temperatures near freezing can increase frost concerns, although the supplied forecast does not establish an official frost advisory or guarantee frost formation.
Conditions can also vary across Vermont's geography.
Communities near Lake Champlain may experience different nighttime temperatures than sheltered valleys and higher elevation locations in the Green Mountains.
Likewise, Burlington's forecast should not be treated as an exact prediction for Montpelier, St. Johnsbury or mountain communities farther east.
Those differences become increasingly important as late October gives way to November.
What Vermont's November Outlook Means The central question for the Oct. 26–Nov. 1 period is whether Vermont's temperatures will average above, near or below normal as the calendar turns.
NOAA's extended outlook is designed to assess that broader pattern, but the supplied Burlington forecast ends Sunday, Oct. 25.
The corresponding CPC temperature and precipitation maps are needed to determine whether Vermont faces a favored warming, cooling, wet or dry tendency during the following week.
Even an above normal temperature outlook would not eliminate the possibility of individual freezing nights, especially in colder valleys and elevated terrain.
Updated National Weather Service forecasts should provide greater detail about overnight temperatures, precipitation chances and any potential frost or freeze concerns as November approaches.
Are you hoping Vermont gets another stretch of mild autumn afternoons, or are you ready for colder November weather?