Weather
Texas Weather Outlook: Panhandle Warmth Into November Oct. 26–Nov. 1
AMARILLO, TX — Texas could carry warmer than normal temperatures into the beginning of November, with a federal weather outlook favoring lingering fall warmth across the state from Oct. 26 through Nov
By Nolan Pierce · 2026-10-19T09:07:59.328Z
AMARILLO, TX — Texas could carry warmer than normal temperatures into the beginning of November, with a federal weather outlook favoring lingering fall warmth across the state from Oct. 26 through Nov. 1. In Amarillo and the surrounding Texas Panhandle, residents will first experience afternoon temperatures approaching 80 degrees before showers and thunderstorms become possible later this week.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day temperature outlook issued Sunday, Oct. 18, favors above normal temperatures across Texas during Oct. 26–Nov. 1. The state lies within a broad warm temperature pattern covering much of the central and southern United States, although the strength of the signal varies by region.
Texas Warmth Could Continue Into November The Texas Panhandle, including Amarillo, Canyon, Hereford and surrounding communities, falls within an area showing approximately a 60%–70% probability of above normal temperatures.
Farther south, Lubbock and much of the South Plains also favor above normal temperatures, with probabilities generally around 60%–70%.
Central Texas, including Austin and Waco, remains within the warmer than normal outlook, while Dallas Fort Worth and much of North Texas also show a strong temperature signal.
The warm pattern extends toward Houston, San Antonio and the Gulf Coast, although probability shading varies across southern and southeastern Texas.
The outlook is particularly notable for the Panhandle, where seasonal temperatures normally decline substantially as October ends and November begins.
While warm afternoons are not unusual during autumn in Amarillo, colder nights and larger temperature swings become increasingly common as winter approaches.
Above normal temperatures during the extended period would suggest that seasonal cooling may be less pronounced than usual, but the outlook does not guarantee temperatures in the 70s or 80s every day.
Amarillo Could Reach 79 Degrees Before Rain Chances Increase Before the extended outlook begins, the National Weather Service forecast for Amarillo indicates several days of mild temperatures and generally sunny skies.
Monday, Oct. 19, is expected to be sunny with a high near 73 degrees. Tuesday should remain mostly sunny with another high around 73.
Wednesday could reach approximately 79 degrees, followed by a high near 77 Thursday.
Southerly winds will accompany the warmer conditions, with gusts potentially reaching 25 mph Tuesday and 30 mph Thursday.
Rain chances begin increasing Thursday night, when the forecast introduces a 20% chance of showers after 1 a.m.
Friday brings another 20% chance of precipitation, with thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
Rain chances increase to 40% Friday night and Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms possible during both periods.
Saturday's high is expected to reach approximately 71 degrees before temperatures fall to around 67 Sunday.
These daily forecasts cover Oct. 19–25 and are separate from NOAA's Oct. 26–Nov. 1 outlook.
Precipitation Outlook Favors Wetter Conditions NOAA's precipitation outlook also favors above normal precipitation across much of Texas during the extended period.
The Texas Panhandle, including Amarillo, generally falls within an area showing approximately a 40%–50% probability of above normal precipitation.
Farther south and east, much of central and eastern Texas remains within the above normal precipitation category, although probabilities vary.
This creates an important distinction: Texas may experience warmer than normal conditions without necessarily remaining dry.
For Amarillo, the primary takeaway is the possibility of a milder than usual transition into November, accompanied by a broader precipitation pattern that leans wetter than normal.
Updated National Weather Service forecasts will clarify whether the extended warmth brings additional mild afternoons, cooler overnight temperatures or more opportunities for rainfall.
Would you welcome another stretch of warm weather across the Texas Panhandle, or are you ready for colder November temperatures?