Weather
Texas Winter Outlook 2026-27: Dallas, Houston Face Wetter Winter
Dallas, TX – Texas residents could experience a wetter start to the 2026 27 winter season, with new federal outlooks highlighting increased precipitation chances across much of the state, including Da
By Caleb Mercer · 2026-10-16T16:21:45.162Z
Dallas, TX – Texas residents could experience a wetter start to the 2026 27 winter season, with new federal outlooks highlighting increased precipitation chances across much of the state, including Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal precipitation across much of Texas from November 2026 through January 2027.
What does NOAA predict for Texas this winter?
The precipitation outlook places much of the state within a 33% to 50% probability range for above normal precipitation, with portions of northern and western Texas showing a stronger wet signal than areas closer to the Gulf Coast.
Dallas and Fort Worth, along with communities across North Texas, could experience increased opportunities for rain and occasional winter precipitation.
Houston, Austin and San Antonio also fall within areas favoring wetter than normal conditions, although the outlook does not predict individual storms or rainfall totals.
Will Texas experience snow or freezing temperatures?
NOAA's temperature outlook shows a different pattern.
Much of Texas falls within an equal chances category, meaning forecasters do not favor above normal, near normal or below normal seasonal temperatures.
That uncertainty leaves room for both mild stretches and potentially significant cold outbreaks.
Forecasters are also monitoring very strong El Niño conditions, which are considered highly likely to continue into winter.
El Niño can influence the southern storm track, sometimes increasing precipitation across Texas during winter.
However, increased precipitation does not automatically translate into more snow or ice.
For drivers traveling Interstate 35, Interstate 20, Interstate 10 and Interstate 45, freezing rain or sleet could still create hazardous conditions if winter storms coincide with sufficiently cold temperatures.
Residents should continue monitoring National Weather Service forecasts as November approaches.
The seasonal outlook provides a broad indication of winter conditions, but specific snowstorms, ice accumulations and freezing temperatures cannot be reliably predicted months in advance.