Weather
Tennessee Winter Outlook 2026-27: Nashville Snow, Rain Chances
Nashville, TN – Tennessee's winter outlook for 2026 27 is taking shape, with federal forecasters favoring above normal temperatures and increased precipitation chances across much of the state, raisin
By Paige Sullivan · 2026-10-16T16:15:33.538Z
Nashville, TN – Tennessee's winter outlook for 2026 27 is taking shape, with federal forecasters favoring above normal temperatures and increased precipitation chances across much of the state, raising questions about what the coming months could bring for Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville and Chattanooga.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal temperatures across Tennessee from November 2026 through January 2027. Precipitation probabilities also lean above normal, particularly across southern and eastern portions of the state.
The temperature outlook places much of Tennessee within a region showing approximately a 33% to 40% probability of above normal temperatures over the three month period.
For Nashville and surrounding Davidson County, the precipitation outlook indicates a modest preference for wetter than normal conditions, with probabilities generally around 33% to 40%.
Farther east, Chattanooga and Knoxville fall within areas showing approximately 40% to 50% chances of above normal precipitation. Memphis and western Tennessee also lean wetter, although the signal is generally weaker.
What does this mean for snow and ice?
A warmer than normal seasonal outlook does not eliminate the possibility of significant winter storms.
Tennessee can still experience freezing rain, accumulating snowfall and dangerous cold outbreaks even during winters that average warmer than normal.
Forecasters are also monitoring the potential for very strong El Niño conditions to continue into winter. El Niño can influence storm tracks and precipitation patterns across the southern United States.
However, NOAA's precipitation outlook includes rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain combined. It does not predict snowfall totals or specific winter storms.
Motorists traveling Interstate 40, Interstate 65, Interstate 75 and Interstate 24 should remain prepared for occasional winter weather disruptions.
Residents should continue monitoring updated National Weather Service forecasts as winter approaches, particularly when individual storm systems become more predictable.