Weather
Tennessee Weather Outlook: Mild Pattern Holds Into Nov. 8–14 in Nashville
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — A rainy start to November will quickly give way to much warmer weather across Middle Tennessee, with Nashville climbing into the mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday before another r
By Nora Whitfield · 2026-11-01T10:15:09.922Z
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — A rainy start to November will quickly give way to much warmer weather across Middle Tennessee, with Nashville climbing into the mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday before another round of showers and possible thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The National Weather Service forecast calls for showers Sunday, Nov. 1, with thunderstorms possible before noon and precipitation chances reaching 90% . Temperatures remain relatively cool with a high near 63 before rain chances decrease Sunday night.
70s Return Monday and Tuesday The pattern changes noticeably Monday.
Only a slight morning shower chance remains before skies become partly sunny and temperatures climb to around 74 degrees . South southeast winds could gust near 20 mph.
Monday night remains mild around 59 before Tuesday becomes even warmer. The Weather Service forecasts partly sunny skies and a high near 77 , with south winds gusting as high as 25 mph.
That creates a rapid early November transition for Nashville: 63 Sunday, 74 Monday and 77 Tuesday .
Rain, Thunderstorms Return Nov. 3–4 Moisture increases again Tuesday night.
Showers become likely after midnight, with a thunderstorm also possible and precipitation chances reaching 60% . Temperatures remain mild with a low around 61.
Wednesday, Nov. 4, becomes the wettest period in the second system. The NWS forecasts showers with a possible thunderstorm and an 80% chance of precipitation , while the high remains near 73. South winds could gust around 20 mph.
Rain chances decrease to 50% Wednesday night and 20% Thursday. Friday turns partly sunny near 70, followed by another partly sunny day Saturday near 69.
Mild November Pattern Remains Relevant The quick warmup also fits NOAA's broader November guidance.
Temperatures generally lean warmer across the Southeast, while NOAA's Nov. 8–14 outlook keeps a broader warm tendency across much of the South. The warm signal becomes weaker closer to the Southeast Atlantic Coast, making inland locations such as Middle Tennessee more appropriate for a continued mild pattern angle than immediate coastal areas.
The outlook does not mean Nashville will remain in the 70s every day through Nov. 14. Individual fronts, colder nights and rain events remain possible.
For Nashville, the immediate sequence is clearer: heavy rain chances Sunday, 70s Monday and Tuesday, another wet period Tuesday night and Wednesday, then quieter conditions toward Nov. 6–7.
As Thanksgiving and holiday travel season move closer, the broader first half of November warmth will be worth watching for signs of when Tennessee might finally see a more sustained taste of winter.