Weather
Nashville, Tennessee Weather Outlook: Warmth Into November Oct. 26–Nov. 1
NASHVILLE, TN — Tennessee could experience a warmer than normal transition into November, with a new federal outlook favoring lingering fall warmth across the state from Oct. 26 through Nov. 1. Nashvi
By Mason Reid · 2026-10-19T09:05:59.799Z
NASHVILLE, TN — Tennessee could experience a warmer than normal transition into November, with a new federal outlook favoring lingering fall warmth across the state from Oct. 26 through Nov. 1. Nashville residents will first experience a stretch of sunny afternoons in the 70s this week, raising the possibility of an extended period of relatively mild autumn weather.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day temperature outlook issued Sunday, Oct. 18, places Tennessee within a broad region favoring above normal temperatures for Oct. 26–Nov. 1. The strongest warmth probabilities extend across the central United States and into the Tennessee Valley, although confidence varies across the state.
Tennessee Warmth Could Continue Into November Middle Tennessee, including Nashville, Murfreesboro, Franklin and Clarksville, falls within an area showing approximately a 60%–70% probability of above normal temperatures during the outlook period.
Western Tennessee, including Memphis and Jackson, also has a strong warm temperature signal, with probabilities generally around 60%–70%.
Farther east, Knoxville and Chattanooga remain within the above normal temperature category, although the probability shading gradually weakens toward the Appalachian region.
The strongest temperature signal generally favors western and central Tennessee, while eastern communities have somewhat lower probabilities of experiencing above normal average temperatures.
This pattern is significant because average temperatures normally decline across Tennessee as October ends and November begins.
A warmer than normal outlook suggests seasonal cooling may be less pronounced during the seven day period. However, the maps do not establish specific afternoon highs or guarantee that every day will be warm.
Nashville Forecast Shows Highs Reaching the Upper 70s Before the extended outlook begins, the National Weather Service forecast for Nashville indicates several days of sunshine and comfortable afternoon temperatures.
Monday, Oct. 19, is expected to be sunny with a high near 73 degrees, followed by another sunny afternoon Tuesday with temperatures reaching approximately 75.
Wednesday could climb to 77 degrees, while Thursday is forecast to reach around 76 after patchy morning fog.
Friday is expected to remain sunny with a high near 76, followed by highs around 78 Saturday and Sunday.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain cooler, generally ranging from the middle 40s to around 50 degrees.
At Nashville International Airport, the supplied observation showed 46 degrees early Monday morning, illustrating the difference between chilly autumn mornings and mild afternoon conditions.
These daily forecasts cover Oct. 19–25 and should not be interpreted as exact temperature predictions for the following week's extended outlook.
Rainfall Outlook Adds Another Consideration While Tennessee's temperature outlook favors warmth, NOAA's precipitation map indicates a different pattern across the state.
Much of Middle Tennessee, including Nashville, lies within an area favoring near normal precipitation during Oct. 26–Nov. 1.
Eastern Tennessee, including Knoxville and portions of the Appalachian foothills, leans toward below normal precipitation, with probabilities generally around 33%–40%.
Western Tennessee, including Memphis, remains closer to the near normal precipitation category.
That distinction means warmer than normal temperatures do not necessarily translate into identical rainfall conditions statewide.
For Nashville, the primary takeaway is the potential for milder than usual temperatures as November begins, while precipitation probabilities offer less evidence of a strongly wet or dry pattern.
Updated National Weather Service forecasts will help determine whether the extended warmth produces additional mild afternoons, cooler nights or changing rain chances.
Are you hoping Tennessee's warm fall weather continues into November, or are you ready for colder temperatures?