Weather
Mid-South Weather: Memphis, Little Rock Could See Warmer Start Nov. 1-5
Memphis, TN – Parts of the Mid South could experience a warmer than normal start to November, with federal climate outlooks favoring above normal temperatures across portions of Tennessee, Arkansas an
By Mara Ellison · 2026-10-27T09:49:13.493Z
Memphis, TN – Parts of the Mid South could experience a warmer than normal start to November, with federal climate outlooks favoring above normal temperatures across portions of Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi from Nov. 1 5. Cities including Memphis, Little Rock and Jackson could see a milder opening to the month, while precipitation trends suggest the potential for unsettled conditions in parts of the region.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, its six to 10 day outlook issued Monday, Oct. 26, favors above normal temperatures across portions of the Mid South during Nov. 1 5. The broader temperature pattern extends across much of the eastern United States, although probabilities vary across Arkansas, western Tennessee and Mississippi. The guidance does not establish specific daily highs or record setting warmth.
The temperature outlook suggests that portions of the region could average warmer than seasonal norms during the five day period. However, individual days may still bring cooler conditions, and the outlook does not indicate that every afternoon will exceed normal temperatures.
Precipitation prospects are more variable. The CPC outlook favors above normal precipitation across portions of the central United States, with the wetter signal extending toward parts of the Mid South. That does not establish widespread rainfall across Memphis, Little Rock and Jackson, nor does it provide daily rain probabilities or expected precipitation totals.
A separate CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook issued Oct. 26 highlights a slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the central United States during Nov. 3 4. The risk area is geographically limited and should not be interpreted as a heavy rain forecast for every Mid South community. The outlook also does not establish specific rainfall totals or flooding impacts for Memphis, Little Rock or Jackson.
The combination of favored warmth and potentially increased precipitation could support a mild, occasionally unsettled opening to November in parts of the region. However, the timing of individual weather systems, the extent of rainfall and whether any heavier precipitation reaches specific communities remain uncertain.
For now, Mid South residents should watch for a potentially warmer than normal pattern during Nov. 1 5, with precipitation chances varying across Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi. Updated National Weather Service forecasts should clarify daily temperatures, rainfall timing and any developing hazards as the opening days of November approach.