Weather
South Dakota Weather: Fire Danger Thursday, Rain Oct. 24-25
Sioux Falls, SD – Residents across southeastern South Dakota face a significant weather transition this week as temperatures climb into the middle 70s, elevated fire danger develops Thursday, and a we
By Grant Holloway · 2026-10-21T10:42:26.832Z
Sioux Falls, SD – Residents across southeastern South Dakota face a significant weather transition this week as temperatures climb into the middle 70s, elevated fire danger develops Thursday, and a weekend storm pattern brings increasing rain chances and a sharp cooldown. Sioux Falls could see afternoon temperatures fall from 76 degrees Friday to just 55 degrees Sunday.
According to the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls, a hazardous weather outlook issued at 3:17 a.m. Wednesday, October 21, identifies elevated fire danger Thursday as warm, dry and breezy conditions develop. The agency also warns of patchy valley fog Wednesday and Thursday mornings, potentially reducing visibility below two miles in some locations.
Fire Danger Increases Before Weekend Rain The most immediate concern involves Thursday's combination of warmth, dry conditions and increasing winds.
The National Weather Service advises residents to use extra caution with activities that could produce sparks, particularly during agricultural harvesting operations. Fires could spread quickly Friday as breezy conditions continue.
Friday's forecast calls for southeast winds of 15 20 mph, with gusts potentially reaching 35 mph around Sioux Falls.
The hazardous weather outlook covers portions of southeastern and central South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, northwestern Iowa and northeastern Nebraska.
For communities throughout Minnehaha County and the greater Sioux Falls metropolitan area, changing weather conditions could affect outdoor work, agricultural activities and weekend plans.
Sioux Falls Five Day Weather Outlook Wednesday 10/21: Sunny skies are expected, with a high near 74 degrees. South winds around 5 mph become calm. Wednesday night remains mostly clear, with temperatures falling near 49 degrees.
Thursday 10/22: Sunshine continues, with a high near 76 degrees. East winds of 5 10 mph turn southerly during the afternoon, with gusts up to 20 mph. Thursday night becomes partly cloudy, with a low around 58 degrees.
Friday 10/23: Mostly sunny and breezy conditions are expected, with a high near 76 degrees. Southeast winds reach 15 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. Friday night brings a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a low near 61 degrees.
Saturday 10/24: Showers become likely after 1 p.m., with a 60% precipitation probability. Mostly cloudy skies accompany a high near 69 degrees. Saturday night brings a 40% chance of showers, with temperatures dropping near 45 degrees.
Sunday 10/25: Cooler conditions arrive, with mostly cloudy skies, a 50% chance of showers and a high near 55 degrees. Sunday night remains unsettled, with a 50% chance of showers and a low around 40 degrees.
Cooler Conditions Continue Into Monday The transition becomes more noticeable early next week.
Monday's forecast calls for a high near 53 degrees, with a 40% chance of showers. Overnight temperatures could fall to approximately 38 degrees.
By Tuesday, partly sunny skies are expected, with temperatures reaching near 53 degrees.
Extended Outlook: Warmer Pattern Could Return NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for October 28 through November 3 favors above normal temperatures across southeastern South Dakota, with increased probabilities of above normal precipitation.
These longer range outlooks indicate broader weather trends rather than specific daily temperatures or rainfall amounts.
Residents should monitor updated forecasts, especially as Thursday's fire danger and Saturday's rain chances approach.
Additional information is available at weather.gov/siouxfalls.