Weather
South Carolina Winter Outlook 2026-27: Rain, Cold and Snow Chances
Charleston, SC – South Carolina's winter outlook for 2026 27 is beginning to take shape, with federal forecasters favoring wetter than normal conditions across the state while signaling increased chan
By Cameron Hayes · 2026-10-16T16:12:31.184Z
Charleston, SC – South Carolina's winter outlook for 2026 27 is beginning to take shape, with federal forecasters favoring wetter than normal conditions across the state while signaling increased chances for above normal temperatures in several regions.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, the seasonal outlook issued Thursday, October 15, favors above normal precipitation across South Carolina from November 2026 through January 2027, with some of the strongest probabilities along the coast.
The precipitation forecast places much of South Carolina within an area showing a 50% to 60% probability of above normal precipitation, with portions of the southeastern coastline approaching the 60% to 70% category.
For Charleston and surrounding Charleston County, the outlook suggests an increased likelihood of a wetter than normal season. Nearby Berkeley and Dorchester counties are also included in the wetter precipitation pattern.
Farther inland, Columbia and communities throughout Richland and Lexington counties could experience increased precipitation, while Greenville and Spartanburg remain within areas favoring wetter than normal conditions.
The temperature outlook is less pronounced. Much of South Carolina falls within an area showing modestly increased odds of above normal temperatures, while portions of the southern coastal region are closer to near normal probabilities.
Forecasters are also monitoring a potentially very strong El Niño pattern heading into winter. El Niño can influence storm tracks across the southern United States, sometimes bringing increased rainfall and more active weather systems.
However, a wetter winter does not necessarily mean a snowier winter. South Carolina's winter precipitation often falls as rain, although freezing rain, sleet and occasional snow remain possible when sufficiently cold air arrives.
Drivers traveling along Interstate 26, Interstate 77, Interstate 85 and Interstate 95 should remain prepared for heavy rainfall, reduced visibility and occasional winter weather disruptions.
NOAA emphasizes that seasonal outlooks represent probabilities, not guarantees. Individual cold outbreaks and winter storms remain possible even during a season that averages warmer than normal.