Weather
Oregon Winter Outlook 2026-27: El Niño Could Shift Snowfall
Portland, OR – Oregon residents could experience a warmer than normal winter in 2026 27, with Portland, Salem, Eugene and Bend among the communities facing increased odds of above average temperatures
By Rachel Monroe · 2026-10-16T16:25:49.244Z
Portland, OR – Oregon residents could experience a warmer than normal winter in 2026 27, with Portland, Salem, Eugene and Bend among the communities facing increased odds of above average temperatures as a potentially very strong El Niño continues developing.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal temperatures across Oregon from November 2026 through January 2027.
What does NOAA predict for Oregon this winter?
Western Oregon, including Portland, Salem and Eugene, falls within a region showing approximately 40% to 50% probabilities of above normal temperatures, with stronger probabilities toward the state's northern border.
Eastern Oregon also favors warmer than normal conditions, although the temperature signal varies geographically.
Precipitation projections remain considerably less certain.
NOAA's precipitation outlook places most of Oregon within the equal chances category, indicating no clear preference for above normal, near normal or below normal precipitation.
That means a wetter or drier winter cannot currently be favored across much of the state.
Will Oregon still see snow this winter?
Despite the warmer outlook, significant mountain snowfall and occasional low elevation snow remain possible.
The Cascade Mountains, including Mount Hood, Santiam Pass and Willamette Pass, could still experience winter storms capable of producing hazardous travel conditions.
Warmer temperatures could also influence snow levels, particularly during storms bringing Pacific moisture into the region.
The National Weather Service indicates very strong El Niño conditions are highly likely to continue into winter.
Historically, El Niño can influence Pacific storm tracks and favor warmer conditions across portions of the Pacific Northwest. However, individual winters can vary significantly.
Drivers traveling Interstate 5, Interstate 84 and mountain highways should remain prepared for rapidly changing weather.
NOAA emphasizes that seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. Even during a warmer than normal winter, Oregon can experience freezing temperatures, heavy snow and disruptive winter storms.