Weather
Oklahoma Weather Today: Dry Air Blocks Rain Despite Incoming System Oct 20-21
Tulsa, OK – A weather disturbance moving across the Plains could produce clouds and occasional sprinkles across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday, but an unusually dry laye
By Sophie Caldwell · 2026-10-20T11:28:22.232Z
Tulsa, OK – A weather disturbance moving across the Plains could produce clouds and occasional sprinkles across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday and Wednesday, but an unusually dry layer of air near the ground is expected to prevent most precipitation from reaching the surface.
According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, a weak midlevel disturbance is moving northeast over an area of high pressure, creating conditions favorable for some precipitation developing above the region without producing widespread measurable rainfall.
The main obstacle to rainfall is a deep layer of dry air near the surface.
As precipitation falls from clouds into this dry atmosphere, much of it may evaporate before reaching the ground, a weather phenomenon known as virga.
Forecasters indicate that isolated sprinkles remain possible Tuesday, October 20, and Wednesday, October 21, but most locations are expected to receive little, if any, measurable precipitation.
Communities across the Tulsa metropolitan area, including portions of Tulsa County and surrounding eastern Oklahoma counties, could experience passing clouds associated with the disturbance.
Similar conditions are possible across northwest Arkansas, including areas near Fayetteville and Fort Smith.
Tuesday afternoon humidity levels are expected to remain relatively low across the region.
The Weather Service's forecast graphic shows minimum relative humidity near 39% in Tulsa and Bartlesville, approximately 32% in Muskogee and around 30% in McAlester.
Farther south, Hugo could experience humidity levels near 23%, while portions of northwest Arkansas may fall into the upper 20s.
Although the approaching disturbance may create the appearance of rain, the dry lower atmosphere will significantly limit precipitation reaching the ground.
Residents should not expect widespread rainfall from this system based on Tuesday morning's forecast.
For updated conditions and local forecasts, visit weather.gov/tulsa.