Weather
North Carolina Weather Outlook: Warm November Oct. 26–Nov. 1
Raleigh, NC – North Carolina could carry warmer than normal weather into the beginning of November, with a federal outlook favoring above average temperatures from the Raleigh Durham area to Charlotte
By Mara Ellison · 2026-10-19T08:13:23.086Z
Raleigh, NC – North Carolina could carry warmer than normal weather into the beginning of November, with a federal outlook favoring above average temperatures from the Raleigh Durham area to Charlotte, Greensboro and the coast. The developing late October pattern suggests that milder fall conditions may linger as the state moves toward a time of year typically associated with increasingly chilly mornings and cooler afternoons.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day outlook issued Oct. 18 covers Monday, Oct. 26, through Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 . The national temperature map places North Carolina within a broad area favoring above normal temperatures, while the accompanying precipitation outlook indicates a more mixed pattern, with much of the state near normal.
Warmth Favored Across North Carolina Into November NOAA's temperature outlook favors above normal conditions across much of North Carolina, with probabilities generally ranging from approximately 50% to 60%.
The signal extends across the Triangle, including Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill, as well as the Piedmont Triad, Charlotte metropolitan area and eastern North Carolina.
Western mountain communities are also within the broader above normal temperature region, although local elevations can produce significantly different conditions from those experienced in the Piedmont.
The outlook does not specify exact daily highs or guarantee unusually warm temperatures every afternoon. Instead, it indicates that average temperatures during the seven day period are more likely to exceed historical norms.
That distinction matters as November approaches because even a warmer than normal pattern can include cool nights and occasional colder days.
Raleigh Forecast Features Sunshine and 70 Degree Highs Before the extended outlook begins, the National Weather Service is forecasting a stretch of predominantly sunny weather across Raleigh and surrounding Wake County communities.
Monday, Oct. 19, is expected to be sunny with a high near 69 degrees. North winds around 11 mph could produce gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday brings another sunny afternoon with temperatures reaching approximately 74 degrees, again with northerly winds and possible gusts near 20 mph.
Wednesday is forecast to reach around 70 degrees, followed by a clear night with temperatures falling to approximately 45 degrees.
Thursday should bring sunshine and a high near 71 degrees, while Friday is expected to reach around 70 degrees.
The weekend forecast calls for a sunny Saturday with a high near 68 degrees, followed by a mostly sunny Sunday with temperatures around 72 degrees.
These temperatures apply to Oct. 19–25 and should not be treated as specific forecasts for the later Oct. 26–Nov. 1 period.
Precipitation Outlook Offers a Different Signal NOAA's precipitation outlook places much of North Carolina within the near normal category during Oct. 26–Nov. 1.
The Triangle, Piedmont and much of the coastal plain do not show the same widespread below normal precipitation signal found farther north across portions of the Mid Atlantic.
This means warmer than normal temperatures are favored, but the outlook does not establish a particularly dry week for Raleigh or the rest of the state.
For residents planning outdoor events, fall festivals, travel or yard work, the temperature outlook may be encouraging. However, individual rainfall chances and daily weather conditions remain uncertain.
The main takeaway is that North Carolina could enter November with a milder than usual temperature pattern, although shorter range forecasts will be needed to determine how warm individual afternoons become.
Would you welcome another stretch of warm fall weather across North Carolina, or are you ready for colder November temperatures?