Weather
Atlantic Hurricane Season Remains Quiet for Now
Morehead City, NC – Tropical development across the Atlantic Basin is expected to remain suppressed through at least much of next week as strong wind shear persists from the tropical Atlantic through
By Lena Wood · 2026-10-03T14:23:35.221Z
Morehead City, NC – Tropical development across the Atlantic Basin is expected to remain suppressed through at least much of next week as strong wind shear persists from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean and Gulf.
The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City, North Carolina, said Friday that the Atlantic Basin remains “shut down with respect to tropical development” through at least much of next week. The agency described the 2026 Atlantic tropical season as record quiet as of Oct. 2.
Forecasters pointed to strong wind shear associated with El Niño as a key factor limiting tropical development. The elevated shear extends across the Atlantic's main development region and continues westward through the Caribbean and Gulf.
Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed or direction with height. Strong shear can disrupt the organization of thunderstorms around a developing tropical system, making it more difficult for a tropical cyclone to form or strengthen.
The NWS graphic, issued at 6 p.m. EDT Friday, uses an ECMWF ensemble forecast of upper level wind shear valid Tuesday evening, Oct. 6. It depicts a broad corridor of stronger shear stretching across much of the tropical Atlantic.
The outlook does not mean tropical development is impossible for the remainder of the hurricane season, which officially continues through Nov. 30. Instead, the NWS assessment applies through at least much of the coming week.
For now, forecasters expect the unusually quiet stretch in Atlantic tropical activity to continue, with strong wind shear remaining unfavorable for development.