Weather
Western New York Weather Alert: 90% Rain, Snow Friday, Nov 12-16
Buffalo, NY – Rain soaked streets, biting north winds and the possibility of snowflakes are setting up a wintry November weekend across western New York.
By Dylan Reeves · 2026-11-12T09:25:01.078Z
Buffalo, NY – Rain soaked streets, biting north winds and the possibility of snowflakes are setting up a wintry November weekend across western New York.
Buffalo faces a 90% chance of rain Thursday before temperatures drop toward 31 degrees Friday night. Snow showers could develop Friday and continue intermittently into Saturday.
According to the National Weather Service in Buffalo, rain will remain likely Thursday, mainly before 2 p.m., with temperatures reaching 48 degrees.
The approaching cold air will bring changing conditions across Erie County and the greater Buffalo metropolitan area.
Thursday Friday: Rain Gives Way to Snow Chances Thursday brings widespread rain, with precipitation chances reaching 90%.
Rainfall amounts should remain below one tenth of an inch, according to the latest local forecast.
Northeast winds of 13 to 17 mph will create a chilly feel, particularly near Lake Erie and exposed waterfront areas.
Temperatures fall toward 33 degrees Thursday night as skies remain cloudy.
The bigger weather change develops Friday morning.
The National Weather Service indicates a slight chance of snow showers before 10 a.m., followed by rain and snow showers between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.
Additional snow showers remain possible after 4 p.m.
Friday's precipitation chance reaches 30%, with temperatures climbing toward 41 degrees.
Northwest winds of 8 to 10 mph will maintain the colder feel.
Drivers traveling along Interstate 90, Interstate 190 and Route 33 should monitor conditions during periods of mixed precipitation.
However, the National Weather Service currently expects little or no snow accumulation in Buffalo.
Saturday Sunday: Snow Chances Continue Friday night temperatures fall toward 31 degrees, bringing below freezing conditions to the city.
A 20% chance of snow showers remains in the forecast.
Saturday brings another opportunity for rain and snow showers before 10 a.m., followed by a chance of rain.
Precipitation chances reach 30%, with temperatures climbing toward 43 degrees.
Saturday night temperatures fall toward 32 degrees, with another 30% chance of mixed precipitation before 10 p.m.
Sunday brings mostly cloudy skies and a high near 46 degrees before temperatures settle around 35 Sunday night.
Lake Effect Snow Expands Across the Great Lakes The NOAA Weather Prediction Center expects polar air to spread across the Great Lakes region behind a strengthening storm system.
Cold northwest winds crossing relatively warm lake waters will produce rounds of lake effect rain and snow through Friday.
The heaviest snowfall is expected across higher terrain in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, where significant accumulations are possible.
Buffalo's local forecast supports intermittent snow showers, but substantial accumulation is not currently indicated.
Residents should remain alert for localized slick spots where temperatures fall below freezing, particularly on bridges and untreated surfaces.
Buffalo Five Day Weather Outlook: Nov. 12 16 Thursday, Nov. 12: Rain, high 48°F. Rain chance 90%. Low 33°F. Friday, Nov. 13: Chance of rain and snow showers. High 41°F. Precipitation chance 30%. Low 31°F. Saturday, Nov. 14: Chance of rain and snow showers. High 43°F. Precipitation chance 30%. Low 32°F. Sunday, Nov. 15: Mostly cloudy, high 46°F. Low 35°F. Monday, Nov. 16: Mostly cloudy, high 47°F. Low 34°F. Extended outlook: Tuesday brings mostly sunny skies and a high near 50 degrees, followed by a low around 35. Wednesday could reach 53 degrees.
As Thanksgiving approaches, residents should continue monitoring updated lake effect snow forecasts, especially as colder air moves across western New York.
Are you expecting Buffalo's first significant November snow, or are you hoping the rain stays rain? Tell us what conditions look like in your neighborhood.