Weather
Western New York Weather: 39° to 72° Swing Nov. 1–4 in Buffalo
BUFFALO, N.Y. — A chilly opening to November will quickly give way to an unusually mild stretch across western New York, with Buffalo climbing from around 39 degrees early Sunday to the lower 70s by W
By Marcus Hale · 2026-11-01T09:34:25.674Z
BUFFALO, N.Y. — A chilly opening to November will quickly give way to an unusually mild stretch across western New York, with Buffalo climbing from around 39 degrees early Sunday to the lower 70s by Wednesday.
The National Weather Service forecast for Buffalo calls for a high near 66 Sunday, Nov. 1, followed by another 66 degree afternoon Monday. Temperatures then rise to around 70 Tuesday before reaching approximately 72 Wednesday.
70s Arrive by Tuesday Mostly sunny conditions are expected Sunday and Monday before skies become partly sunny Tuesday and Wednesday.
Nighttime temperatures also trend sharply warmer. After the early reading around 39, Sunday night is expected to fall only to around 49. Monday night reaches approximately 52, followed by 56 Tuesday night.
That gives Buffalo a substantial early November transition: temperatures move from the upper 30s at the beginning of the period to around 70 Tuesday and 72 Wednesday.
For a city already moving toward the colder part of the year, that makes warmth — not early winter weather — the dominant first week story.
Rain Returns Wednesday Night The pattern changes late Wednesday.
The Weather Service forecasts showers becoming likely mainly after 1 a.m. Wednesday night, with precipitation chances increasing to 60% and a low around 57.
Thursday remains unsettled with showers likely, a 60% rain chance and a high near 68. Rain chances continue Friday at 50% as temperatures ease to around 63.
By Saturday, Buffalo cools further to around 58 with a 30% chance of showers.
The late week change therefore brings wetter and somewhat cooler weather, but the current forecast still does not show an abrupt transition into sustained winter conditions.
November Warmth Could Hold The local warmup fits NOAA's broader November outlook.
The Climate Prediction Center favors above normal temperatures across New York during November, while its separate Nov. 8–14 outlook continues to favor warmer than normal conditions across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
That supports a legitimate early November question for Buffalo: when does the first sustained taste of winter actually arrive?
The extended outlook does not mean Buffalo will remain in the 60s or 70s every day through Nov. 14. Individual cold fronts, chilly nights and even isolated early season wintry weather remain possible. CPC guidance describes the average temperature across the full period, not specific daily highs.
For now, though, the first week numbers are striking: 66 Sunday, 66 Monday, 70 Tuesday and 72 Wednesday before rain and somewhat cooler temperatures arrive late week.
It remains too early to forecast Thanksgiving Day on Nov. 26, but the warm first half of November signal is worth watching as western New York moves toward Thanksgiving and the holiday travel season.
When do you expect Buffalo to get its first real taste of winter?