Weather
Western New York Thanksgiving Travel: Warmer Weather Nov. 18–24
Buffalo, NY – Thanksgiving travelers across western New York could experience a milder than usual&n…
By Lauren Beckett · 2026-11-11T05:08:32.400Z
Buffalo, NY – Thanksgiving travelers across western New York could experience a milder than usual stretch of late November weather from November 18–24, with above average temperatures favored and precipitation expected to remain near seasonal norms across the Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester regions.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook for Wednesday, November 18, through Tuesday, November 24, favors above normal temperatures across western New York, while precipitation is expected to remain near normal.
The outlook suggests a relatively mild pattern for the region, although occasional rain, colder nights and brief changes in weather remain possible near Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Buffalo, Cheektowaga and Erie County Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Amherst, Tonawanda, Hamburg and surrounding Erie County communities could experience temperatures running above typical late November averages.
Interstate 90, Interstate 190, Interstate 290 and U.S. Route 219 will be important travel corridors as holiday traffic increases.
Occasional rain remains possible, but the outlook does not signal an unusually wet period.
Niagara Falls, Lockport and Niagara County Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Lockport and surrounding communities could also experience relatively mild conditions.
Interstate 190 and the Niagara Scenic Parkway are important routes for regional travelers.
Above average temperatures could reduce opportunities for persistent freezing conditions, although colder overnight periods remain possible.
Rochester, Greece and Monroe County Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Henrietta and surrounding Monroe County communities could see temperatures above seasonal averages during November 18–24.
Interstate 90, Interstate 390 and Interstate 490 are major routes connecting Rochester with Buffalo, Syracuse and the Finger Lakes.
Passing showers could still create wet roads despite the near normal precipitation outlook.
Batavia, Geneseo and the I 90 Corridor Batavia, Le Roy, Geneseo and surrounding communities could experience a generally mild preholiday pattern.
The New York State Thruway, Interstate 90, remains a major Thanksgiving travel route across western New York.
Travelers should monitor daily forecasts for rain and changing temperatures, particularly during early morning and overnight trips.
Jamestown, Dunkirk and the Southern Tier Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Olean and surrounding communities could also see above average temperatures.
Interstate 86 and Interstate 90 are important corridors for travelers heading toward Pennsylvania and northeastern Ohio.
Although the overall pattern favors milder conditions, communities near Lake Erie may still experience localized weather changes.
Thanksgiving Travel: What About Lake Effect Snow? Western New York is known for significant lake effect snow during late autumn, particularly near Buffalo and communities east and southeast of Lake Erie.
However, the current extended outlook favors above average temperatures and near normal precipitation rather than establishing a widespread winter storm threat.
Lake effect snow can still develop during brief colder periods if atmospheric conditions become favorable, but the outlook does not identify a specific event.
The forecast window ends Tuesday, November 24, ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday, November 26.
For western New York, the primary takeaway is the potential for milder temperatures and precipitation closer to normal during the days leading up to the holiday.
Travelers should monitor updated National Weather Service forecasts and New York State Thruway road conditions before departing.