Weather
New York Weather: Buffalo Thanksgiving Rain or Snow? NOAA's Nov. 14-27 Holiday Travel Outlook
BUFFALO, New York – Western New York is heading into November with an unexpected stretch of mild weather, as Buffalo temperatures climb toward 70 degrees before rain chances return. But farther ahead,
By Miles Carter · 2026-10-31T08:08:08.307Z
BUFFALO, New York – Western New York is heading into November with an unexpected stretch of mild weather, as Buffalo temperatures climb toward 70 degrees before rain chances return. But farther ahead, NOAA's extended outlooks are raising an early Thanksgiving travel question: Could the region's familiar November snow make an appearance before the holiday?
Buffalo could reach 69 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday, a significant change from Saturday's forecast high of 56. Meanwhile, federal outlooks favor above normal temperatures across New York during much of November, with precipitation patterns changing as Thanksgiving approaches.
Buffalo Warms Nearly 70 Degrees Before Midweek Rain Returns According to the National Weather Service, Buffalo will see sunshine Saturday, Oct. 31, with a high near 56 degrees before temperatures fall to around 39 overnight.
Sunday brings mostly sunny skies and a high near 64, followed by 65 Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday could both reach 69 degrees, giving Western New York several mild afternoons to open November.
The dry stretch begins changing Wednesday afternoon, when shower chances increase to 30%.
Rain chances climb to 50% Wednesday night and Thursday before decreasing to 30% Thursday night. Friday carries a 40% chance of showers, with a high near 62.
New York residents will also turn clocks back one hour at 2 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 1, bringing earlier sunsets and more evening travel after dark.
NOAA November Outlook Favors Warmth Across Western New York NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks issued Oct. 30 favor above normal temperatures across New York during Nov. 5 9 and Nov. 7 13.
The warmer than normal signal continues during Nov. 14 27, with above normal temperatures favored across Western New York, including Buffalo.
Precipitation probabilities shift during the month.
During Nov. 5 9, above normal precipitation is favored around Buffalo and portions of Western New York.
By Nov. 7 13, below normal precipitation becomes favored across much of the state, including the Buffalo area.
The Nov. 14 27 outlook shows no clear preference for above or below normal precipitation around Buffalo, although wetter than normal conditions are favored farther south across parts of the eastern United States.
That period includes Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 26, and the surrounding holiday travel window.
Thanksgiving Holiday Travel: Could Buffalo See Lake Effect Snow? For Western New York, Thanksgiving weather questions carry particular interest because November can bring lake effect snow to communities around Lake Erie.
However, NOAA's extended outlook does not identify a specific lake effect snow event, winter storm, snowfall accumulation or travel disruption.
Above normal temperatures are favored overall, but that does not eliminate the possibility of colder periods capable of supporting snow.
The precipitation outlook also cannot determine whether Buffalo will experience rain, snow or dry weather on Thanksgiving Day itself.
For now, the more immediate weather change arrives Wednesday, when shower chances begin increasing after several mild afternoons.
Residents should expect temperatures approaching 70 degrees early next week, followed by increasing rain chances Wednesday through Friday. Thanksgiving rain and snow possibilities will become clearer as shorter range forecasts become available.
Buffalo Five Day Weather Forecast Sunday, Nov. 1: Mostly sunny, high near 64°F. Partly cloudy overnight, low around 49°F. Monday, Nov. 2: Mostly sunny, high near 65°F. Mostly cloudy overnight, low around 51°F. Tuesday, Nov. 3: Partly sunny, high near 69°F. Mostly cloudy overnight, low around 56°F. Wednesday, Nov. 4: Partly sunny, high near 69°F, with a 30% chance of showers after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy overnight, low around 58°F, with a 50% chance of showers. Thursday, Nov. 5: Mostly cloudy, high near 65°F, with a 50% chance of showers. Mostly cloudy overnight, low around 50°F, with a 30% chance of showers.