Weather
Buffalo, NY Weather Oct. 17-21: Cold, Snow Potential
BUFFALO, NY – A colder weather pattern is favored across western New York Oct. 17 21, following a sharp temperature drop that could send overnight lows into the 30s this weekend and raise questions ab
By Cameron Hayes · 2026-10-12T10:20:21.103Z
BUFFALO, NY – A colder weather pattern is favored across western New York Oct. 17 21, following a sharp temperature drop that could send overnight lows into the 30s this weekend and raise questions about the potential for early season snow across the Great Lakes region.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, below normal temperatures are favored across western New York during the Oct. 17 21 period, with probabilities generally reaching 50 60% in the region. The colder outlook extends across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes.
The Climate Prediction Center has also identified a slight risk of hazardous cold temperatures on Monday, Oct. 19, across portions of the Northeast, including areas of New York state. The designation represents a 20 40% probability of temperatures meeting hazardous cold thresholds.
The National Weather Service forecast for Buffalo shows a significant temperature change heading into the weekend.
Tuesday could reach 75 degrees, with a 40% chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday's high is expected near 67, followed by 63 Thursday.
Rain chances increase Thursday night and Friday, with an 80% chance of showers during both periods. Friday's high is forecast near 62 degrees before temperatures fall sharply overnight.
By Friday night, Buffalo could drop to around 37 degrees. Saturday's high is expected near 48, followed by another chilly night with temperatures around 36 degrees.
Although colder air could eventually support early season lake effect precipitation if favorable atmospheric conditions develop, the current Buffalo forecast does not include snow. The Climate Prediction Center outlook also does not establish specific snowfall chances or accumulation amounts.
NOAA's precipitation outlook favors below normal precipitation across western New York Oct. 17 21, suggesting the colder pattern may not produce widespread precipitation.
Residents should prepare for a noticeable transition from Tuesday's 75 degree warmth to weekend highs in the 40s, while monitoring updated forecasts for frost potential and any changes in precipitation type through Oct. 21.