Weather
Buffalo, New York Weather: November Outlook Favors Warmth
Buffalo, NY – Western New York could close October on a warmer than normal note, with federal forecasters favoring above average temperatures as November begins. The extended outlook follows a stretch
By Lauren Beckett · 2026-10-19T08:09:39.501Z
Buffalo, NY – Western New York could close October on a warmer than normal note, with federal forecasters favoring above average temperatures as November begins. The extended outlook follows a stretch of mostly sunny weather in Buffalo this week, with afternoon temperatures expected to reach the lower 60s.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day outlook issued Sunday, Oct. 18, favors above normal temperatures across Buffalo and much of New York from Monday, Oct. 26, through Sunday, Nov. 1. The outlook indicates an increased likelihood of mild conditions compared with seasonal averages, although it does not predict specific daily temperatures.
Buffalo's Warmer Pattern Could Extend Into November The temperature outlook places western New York within a broad area of above normal probabilities extending across much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.
Buffalo falls within an approximately 60% to 70% probability zone for above normal temperatures during the seven day period. That represents a relatively strong signal for warmth compared with what residents typically experience near the end of October.
The outlook does not mean every afternoon will be unusually warm. Instead, it indicates that the average temperature over the entire period is more likely to finish above normal.
Other western New York communities, including Niagara Falls, Batavia and Rochester, also fall within the broader warmer than normal pattern. The strongest probabilities are concentrated farther inland across portions of the central United States.
Sunny Weather Leads Into the Extended Outlook The National Weather Service forecast for Buffalo shows a relatively quiet stretch of weather before the extended outlook begins.
Monday is expected to bring sunshine and a high near 63 degrees, followed by mostly sunny conditions Tuesday with temperatures reaching approximately 62 degrees.
Wednesday and Thursday should remain similarly mild, with highs near 61 and 62 degrees, respectively. Overnight temperatures will be cooler, with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s on several nights.
Friday is forecast to reach approximately 59 degrees, while Saturday and Sunday could return to the lower and middle 60s.
Those conditions provide a favorable transition toward the final week of October, although the daily forecast does not establish what temperatures will occur during the subsequent extended outlook.
What November's Outlook Means for Western New York NOAA's precipitation outlook introduces another important element. Much of western New York is favored to receive below normal precipitation during Oct. 26–Nov. 1, with Buffalo situated in a broadly 40% to 50% probability area.
That combination of warmer than normal temperatures and a drier than normal precipitation tendency could offer residents additional opportunities for late season outdoor activities.
However, below normal precipitation does not guarantee rain free conditions, and the outlook cannot rule out individual colder days.
For Buffalo residents preparing for November, the main takeaway is that the typical late fall cooling trend may be interrupted by a milder pattern.
Whether that warmth translates into additional afternoons near 60 degrees will become clearer as shorter range forecasts become available.
Would you welcome another stretch of mild weather in Buffalo, or are you ready for colder November temperatures?