Weather
New Mexico Winter Outlook 2026-27: Albuquerque Rain, Santa Fe Snow?
Albuquerque, NM – New Mexico could experience a wetter than normal start to the 2026 27 winter season, with Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces falling within areas where federal forecasters favor in
By Claire Benton · 2026-10-16T16:24:23.327Z
Albuquerque, NM – New Mexico could experience a wetter than normal start to the 2026 27 winter season, with Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces falling within areas where federal forecasters favor increased precipitation from November through January.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal precipitation across much of New Mexico during November 2026 through January 2027.
What does NOAA predict for New Mexico this winter?
The precipitation outlook places much of the state within a 40% to 50% probability range for above normal precipitation, while some northern areas show a weaker signal.
That includes communities across Bernalillo County, Santa Fe County and Doña Ana County, where winter storms could bring periods of rain or mountain snow.
Meanwhile, NOAA's temperature outlook shows equal chances of above normal, near normal or below normal temperatures across most of New Mexico.
This means forecasters have not identified a dominant seasonal temperature trend for Albuquerque or Santa Fe.
Could New Mexico see more snow this winter?
Northern New Mexico's higher elevations, including areas near Taos and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, could benefit from additional winter moisture when temperatures support snowfall.
However, increased precipitation odds do not guarantee above normal snowfall, particularly in lower elevation communities.
The National Weather Service also indicates very strong El Niño conditions are highly likely to continue into winter.
El Niño can influence storm tracks across the southern United States, sometimes bringing wetter conditions into the Southwest.
For drivers, winter storms could create changing conditions along Interstate 25, Interstate 40 and mountain highways, particularly during freezing temperatures.
Residents should monitor updated forecasts as winter approaches.
NOAA emphasizes that seasonal outlooks describe probabilities rather than guaranteed conditions. Individual storms, snowfall totals and temperature extremes cannot be determined months in advance.