Weather
Southwest Missouri: Rain Chances Reach 80-100%
Springfield, MO – Rain chances will increase sharply across southwest Missouri late Wednesday into Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding as a wetter, cooler pattern develops.
By Caleb Mercer · 2026-09-29T23:20:11.772Z
Springfield, MO – Rain chances will increase sharply across southwest Missouri late Wednesday into Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding as a wetter, cooler pattern develops.
According to the National Weather Service in Springfield, the highest rain chances — 80% to 100% — are expected Thursday into Friday. Rain will gradually spread east across the region, with the first higher chances developing Wednesday evening and overnight, especially west of Highway 65.
For Springfield, Bolivar and Lebanon, the NWS rainfall scenario graphic shows an average outcome of 1 to 1.5 inches through Thursday night. A lower end scenario would produce about 0.25 to 1 inch, while a higher end outcome could reach 3 to 4 inches.
Amounts could be higher farther west. Joplin, Cassville and Pittsburg, Kansas, have an average scenario of 1.5 to 2 inches, with a high end range of 3.5 to 4.5 inches. Nevada and Stockton in Missouri and Fort Scott, Kansas, also show 1.5 to 2 inches in the average scenario.
Forecast uncertainty increases farther south and east. West Plains, Mountain Grove and Eminence could receive as little as a trace to 0.10 inch in a low end scenario, compared with 0.25 to 1 inch in the average scenario and 1.5 to 2.5 inches at the high end.
Temperatures will remain above normal Wednesday, with highs ranging from 84 to 93 degrees. Highs Thursday are forecast from 75 to 88 before cooler air arrives Friday, when temperatures should range from 68 to 77.
The NWS said localized heavy rainfall and flooding are possible, but exact totals will depend on where the heaviest bands develop. Residents should expect rain chances to increase late Wednesday, peak Thursday into Friday, and monitor later forecasts for updated rainfall amounts.