Weather
Minnesota Winter Alert: NOAA Predicts Warmer, Less Snowy 2026-27 Season
Minneapolis, MN – Minnesota residents preparing for another harsh winter may be in for a surprise. A new winter outlook released Thursday, October 15, suggests warmer than normal temperatures could do
By Avery Collins · 2026-10-15T18:47:41.874Z
Minneapolis, MN – Minnesota residents preparing for another harsh winter may be in for a surprise. A new winter outlook released Thursday, October 15, suggests warmer than normal temperatures could dominate the 2026 27 winter season, potentially reducing snowfall across the Twin Cities and surrounding communities.
According to the National Weather Service Twin Cities office and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a potentially record setting El Niño is expected to strongly influence weather patterns from December 2026 through February 2027.
The outlook gives Minneapolis, St. Paul, St. Cloud, Rochester and much of central and eastern Minnesota a 50% to 60% probability of above normal temperatures this winter.
Forecasters expect fewer and shorter Arctic air outbreaks, potentially bringing an overall milder winter compared with typical Minnesota conditions.
For the Twin Cities, NOAA's outlook indicates a 54% probability of above normal temperatures, compared with a 33% chance of near normal conditions and just a 13% probability of below normal temperatures.
However, snowfall remains a major uncertainty.
NOAA's precipitation outlook shows nearly equal probabilities of above normal, near normal and below normal precipitation across much of Minnesota.
Forecasters emphasize that precipitation includes both rain and melted snow, meaning a warmer winter could produce substantial precipitation without delivering typical snowfall totals.
The National Weather Service also noted that all rain events are likely during the winter, potentially resulting in above normal precipitation but below normal snowfall.
That distinction could affect winter driving conditions across Interstate 94, Interstate 35 and other major Minnesota highways, where precipitation type and changing temperatures can influence road conditions.
Residents should remember that a warmer than normal seasonal outlook does not eliminate the possibility of major snowstorms, freezing rain or dangerous cold spells.
The forecast covers December 1, 2026, through February 28, 2027, and reflects seasonal probabilities rather than guaranteed weather conditions.
For now, NOAA's latest outlook points toward a potentially milder Minnesota winter, although the amount of snow remains uncertain.