Weather
Great Lakes Nov. 23–26: El Niño Won’t Rule Out Thanksgiving Snow Ohio-Michigan
Great Lakes — El Niño does not cancel snow season, and the Farmers’ Almanac says parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio could see snow showers during Thanksgiving week.
By Cole Barrett · 2026-10-20T12:03:22.699Z
Great Lakes — El Niño does not cancel snow season, and the Farmers’ Almanac says parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio could see snow showers during Thanksgiving week.
The publication’s Oct. 19 update covers Monday, Nov. 23, through Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2026. Its Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest forecast zone, which also includes Kentucky, leans toward colder conditions with scattered snow showers or flurries.
The Almanac does not call for a major regional snowstorm, although it says brief travel slowdowns could occur where snow showers develop. Its outlook does not establish snowfall amounts or timing for individual cities.
November snow is already part of the region’s climate. Chicago averages 1.8 inches of snowfall during November , according to National Weather Service climate normals for 1991–2020. That figure provides historical context rather than an expected accumulation for this Thanksgiving.
NOAA’s Oct. 15 November outlook favors above normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and below normal precipitation in parts of the region. It identifies El Niño as the dominant climate influence while acknowledging that short term weather fluctuations can interrupt the broader pattern.
Those monthly probabilities leave room for cold, snowy days. A drier than average November also could contain holiday snow showers. The distinction matters: a monthly average cannot tell travelers what conditions they will encounter during a particular four day stretch.
Lake effect snow adds another regional consideration. The National Weather Service says it commonly develops during late fall and winter when cold air passes over comparatively warm, open lake water. Whether those ingredients align during Thanksgiving week remains unknown.
The Almanac’s holiday projection should not be treated as a confirmed local forecast. NOAA says snowfall generally cannot be predicted reliably more than a week ahead. Travelers should check National Weather Service forecasts as departure approaches.
NOAA’s updated November outlook is scheduled for Oct. 31, providing another assessment of the monthly pattern before detailed Thanksgiving forecasts become available.