Weather
Kentucky Weather: Where Is Winter? Warmth Holds Into Mid-November in Louisville
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A mild start to November will turn significantly warmer Tuesday before a wetter system brings showers and possible thunderstorms to Louisville Wednesday, followed by gradually cooler
By Claire Benton · 2026-11-01T10:18:42.991Z
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A mild start to November will turn significantly warmer Tuesday before a wetter system brings showers and possible thunderstorms to Louisville Wednesday, followed by gradually cooler conditions late in the week.
The National Weather Service forecast calls for a high near 68 Sunday, Nov. 1, with a 40% chance of afternoon showers. Rain chances increase to 50% Sunday night before temperatures climb to around 69 Monday.
77° Warmth Peaks Tuesday Monday begins with only a slight chance of showers before clouds gradually decrease during the night.
Tuesday becomes the standout day of the first week of November. Mostly sunny skies and south winds of 9 to 14 mph are expected to push temperatures to around 77 degrees , making it the warmest day in the current forecast.
Tuesday night remains mild near 60, but moisture begins returning. The Weather Service places rain chances at 50% after 1 a.m., setting up a much wetter Wednesday.
That gives Louisville a clear early November progression: 68 Sunday, 69 Monday, 77 Tuesday, then storms Wednesday.
Rain, Thunderstorms Arrive Nov. 4 Wednesday, Nov. 4, becomes the wettest period in the forecast.
The NWS calls for showers with a possible thunderstorm and an 80% chance of precipitation , while temperatures remain mild near 72. Rain and thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night at 50%.
Conditions gradually improve Thursday, with a 30% shower chance and a high near 70. Friday stays partly sunny around 67 before Saturday cools to around 65.
The midweek storm system therefore interrupts the warmth, but it does not immediately bring winterlike temperatures.
Warm, Drier Signal Nov. 8–14 NOAA’s broader outlook keeps the Ohio Valley tilted warm during Nov. 8–14 , with above normal temperatures favored across the region.
At the same time, below normal precipitation becomes favored across a broad area extending into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. That creates a useful contrast: an active, wetter first week may give way to a warmer but quieter second week pattern .
That does not mean Louisville will stay dry or warm every day through Nov. 14. It means average temperatures are favored above normal while total precipitation trends below normal for the period.
For Louisville, the immediate story is more concrete: 77° Tuesday, showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday, then gradually cooler and quieter weather into Nov. 6–7.
As Thanksgiving and holiday travel season approach, the larger November question will be how long the Ohio Valley warmth can keep a sustained taste of winter waiting.