Weather
Midwest Weather: Illinois-Wisconsin 70-90% Warmer, Wetter Pattern Oct 20-24
Chicago, IL – A pronounced warmer than normal temperature pattern is favored across the Midwest next week, with Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and neighboring states positioned within one of the strongest
By Natalie Brooks · 2026-10-15T10:57:53.689Z
Chicago, IL – A pronounced warmer than normal temperature pattern is favored across the Midwest next week, with Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and neighboring states positioned within one of the strongest warm probability areas in the country. The outlook covers Tuesday, October 20, through Saturday, October 24, while rainfall probabilities reveal an important divide between the western and eastern Midwest.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, temperature and precipitation outlooks issued Wednesday, October 14, show unusually high probabilities of above normal temperatures across much of the central United States. The strongest temperature signal stretches through Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Missouri, while precipitation probabilities favor wetter conditions farther west and become less decisive toward the Great Lakes.
Strong warmth probabilities across Illinois and Iowa Iowa lies within NOAA's 70% to 90% probability shading for above normal temperatures across much of the state. The strongest signal is concentrated toward the eastern portion, where probabilities approach the upper end of that range.
Illinois also falls within a strong above normal temperature area, with probabilities generally ranging from 70% to 90%, particularly across northern and central sections.
Wisconsin shares the broad warm signal, with much of the state positioned within the 70% to 90% categories. The strongest shading extends across southern and western portions of the state.
Missouri and Minnesota also favor above normal temperatures, although probabilities vary across their respective regions.
For Chicago, Des Moines, Madison and Milwaukee, the outlook indicates a substantially greater likelihood of temperatures averaging above historical late October normals than below them.
These percentages do not represent a forecast of 70 to 90 degree temperatures. They indicate the probability that average temperatures during the five day period will finish above normal.
Precipitation pattern changes across state lines The precipitation outlook shows a more complicated picture.
Western Iowa falls within NOAA's above normal precipitation area, with probabilities generally ranging from 40% to 50%. The signal weakens eastward toward the Mississippi River.
Illinois sits closer to the transition between above normal and near normal precipitation probabilities. Western sections show a modest wetter than normal tendency, while eastern areas are closer to near normal conditions.
Wisconsin also shows a geographic divide. Western portions favor above normal precipitation, while eastern Wisconsin approaches the near normal category.
Minnesota generally favors above normal precipitation, with probabilities strengthening farther west toward the Dakotas.
What the outlook means for residents The strong temperature signal could make late October outdoor activities more comfortable than usual across much of the Midwest.
However, warmer than normal averages do not guarantee warm afternoons every day, and the precipitation outlook does not identify when individual rain systems might arrive.
For residents traveling between Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin, the biggest difference may be precipitation rather than temperature, as wetter than normal probabilities generally strengthen toward the western Midwest.
The main takeaway is that unusually high confidence in above normal temperatures extends across several major Midwestern states, while rainfall expectations remain more geographically divided.
Are you hoping the warmer pattern continues into November, or are you ready for traditional fall temperatures?